Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for António Guterres out by December 31?
Geopolitics·UN

António Guterres out by December 31?

icon for António Guterres out by December 31?
Geopolitics·UN

António Guterres out by December 31?

26% chance
Polymarket
NEW
26% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing selection process for António Guterres’s successor, whose second term as UN Secretary-General ends on December 31, 2026, underpins the 62.5% implied probability that he will not depart the role earlier. Security Council straw polls in July and August 2026 revealed no consensus among candidates, with divisions among permanent members over regional rotation and specific nominees from Latin America and the Caribbean. The United States has signaled opposition to any temporary extension beyond the term’s end, while formal nomination procedures continue without reports of pressure for an early exit or removal. Geopolitical tensions and the lack of a veto-proof frontrunner sustain uncertainty around a smooth January 2027 transition but leave little basis for anticipating Guterres’s departure ahead of schedule.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,322
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing selection process for António Guterres’s successor, whose second term as UN Secretary-General ends on December 31, 2026, underpins the 62.5% implied probability that he will not depart the role earlier. Security Council straw polls in July and August 2026 revealed no consensus among candidates, with divisions among permanent members over regional rotation and specific nominees from Latin America and the Caribbean. The United States has signaled opposition to any temporary extension beyond the term’s end, while formal nomination procedures continue without reports of pressure for an early exit or removal. Geopolitical tensions and the lack of a veto-proof frontrunner sustain uncertainty around a smooth January 2027 transition but leave little basis for anticipating Guterres’s departure ahead of schedule.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,322
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

4%
icon for UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

4%
icon for Maduro guilty of all counts?

Maduro guilty of all counts?

20%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"António Guterres out by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 37% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 37¢, the market collectively assigns a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"António Guterres out by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "António Guterres out by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "António Guterres out by December 31?" is 37% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "António Guterres out by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.