The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges on any article, while several lawmakers maintain Duterte-aligned voting records or face absences that complicate the arithmetic. Recent proceedings have featured House prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential-fund use and related charges, with the defense preparing responses and the court scheduled to address vote-threshold questions in late September. Key variables include potential shifts among swing senators, rulings on senator participation amid detentions or medical leaves, and the strength of witness testimony or documentary records. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around whether prosecutors can assemble the necessary supermajority before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
53% chance
$12,256 Vol.
$12,256 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
53% chance
$12,256 Vol.
$12,256 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges on any article, while several lawmakers maintain Duterte-aligned voting records or face absences that complicate the arithmetic. Recent proceedings have featured House prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential-fund use and related charges, with the defense preparing responses and the court scheduled to address vote-threshold questions in late September. Key variables include potential shifts among swing senators, rulings on senator participation amid detentions or medical leaves, and the strength of witness testimony or documentary records. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around whether prosecutors can assemble the necessary supermajority before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,256End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges on any article, while several lawmakers maintain Duterte-aligned voting records or face absences that complicate the arithmetic. Recent proceedings have featured House prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential-fund use and related charges, with the defense preparing responses and the court scheduled to address vote-threshold questions in late September. Key variables include potential shifts among swing senators, rulings on senator participation amid detentions or medical leaves, and the strength of witness testimony or documentary records. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around whether prosecutors can assemble the necessary supermajority before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,256End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges on any article, while several lawmakers maintain Duterte-aligned voting records or face absences that complicate the arithmetic. Recent proceedings have featured House prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential-fund use and related charges, with the defense preparing responses and the court scheduled to address vote-threshold questions in late September. Key variables include potential shifts among swing senators, rulings on senator participation amid detentions or medical leaves, and the strength of witness testimony or documentary records. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around whether prosecutors can assemble the necessary supermajority before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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