The US Open 2026 men's singles draw has been reshaped by Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury, elevating Carlos Alcaraz to the top title contender despite his own extended layoff from a wrist issue. As the defending champion, Alcaraz has advanced comfortably through early rounds and now faces a stern fourth-round test against Tommy Paul, whose prior wins and hard-court consistency create a competitive matchup. Other notable R16 clashes include Daniil Medvedev against Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton versus Stefanos Tsitsipas, where recent form, serve efficiency, and hard-court pedigree heavily influence trader consensus on advancement probabilities. Alexander Zverev holds favorable positioning in his section after navigating early tests, while American depth and home-court factors add volatility for underdogs. Late-round scheduling, surface conditions at Flushing Meadows, and any fresh injury reports remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for reaching the round of 16.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,361 Vol.
Taylor Fritz
No
Arthur Fils
No
Frances Tiafoe
Yes
Rafael Jodar
No
Lorenzo Musetti
No
Learner Tien
Yes
Alexander Bublik
No
Brandon Nakashima
No
Jakub Mensik
No
Jiri Lehecka
No
Casper Ruud
No
Alexander Zverev
Yes
Carlos Alcaraz
Yes
Felix Auger-Aliassime
No
Novak Djokovic
No
Flavio Cobolli
No
Alex de Minaur
No
Daniil Medvedev
Yes
Ben Shelton
Yes
Alexander Blockx
Yes
Zizou Bergs
No
Cameron Norrie
No
Darwin Blanch
No
Sebastian Gorzny
No
Jack Kennedy
No
Patrick Kypson
No
Gael Monfils
No
Dane Sweeny
No
J.J. Wolf
No
Michael Zheng
No
Juncheng Shang
No
Thanasi Kokkinakis
No
Filip Misolic
No
Carlos Taberner
No
Tommy Paul
Yes
Luciano Darderi
Yes
Valentin Vacherot
No
Andrey Rublev
No
Francisco Cerundolo
Yes
Joao Fonseca
No
Alejandro Tabilo
No
Arthur Rinderknech
No
Ugo Humbert
No
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Yes
$25,361 Vol.
Taylor Fritz
No
Arthur Fils
No
Frances Tiafoe
Yes
Rafael Jodar
No
Lorenzo Musetti
No
Learner Tien
Yes
Alexander Bublik
No
Brandon Nakashima
No
Jakub Mensik
No
Jiri Lehecka
No
Casper Ruud
No
Alexander Zverev
Yes
Carlos Alcaraz
Yes
Felix Auger-Aliassime
No
Novak Djokovic
No
Flavio Cobolli
No
Alex de Minaur
No
Daniil Medvedev
Yes
Ben Shelton
Yes
Alexander Blockx
Yes
Zizou Bergs
No
Cameron Norrie
No
Darwin Blanch
No
Sebastian Gorzny
No
Jack Kennedy
No
Patrick Kypson
No
Gael Monfils
No
Dane Sweeny
No
J.J. Wolf
No
Michael Zheng
No
Juncheng Shang
No
Thanasi Kokkinakis
No
Filip Misolic
No
Carlos Taberner
No
Tommy Paul
Yes
Luciano Darderi
Yes
Valentin Vacherot
No
Andrey Rublev
No
Francisco Cerundolo
Yes
Joao Fonseca
No
Alejandro Tabilo
No
Arthur Rinderknech
No
Ugo Humbert
No
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Yes
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Round of 16 at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Round of 16 have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Round of 16 at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Round of 16 have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The US Open 2026 men's singles draw has been reshaped by Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament withdrawal with a right knee injury, elevating Carlos Alcaraz to the top title contender despite his own extended layoff from a wrist issue. As the defending champion, Alcaraz has advanced comfortably through early rounds and now faces a stern fourth-round test against Tommy Paul, whose prior wins and hard-court consistency create a competitive matchup. Other notable R16 clashes include Daniil Medvedev against Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton versus Stefanos Tsitsipas, where recent form, serve efficiency, and hard-court pedigree heavily influence trader consensus on advancement probabilities. Alexander Zverev holds favorable positioning in his section after navigating early tests, while American depth and home-court factors add volatility for underdogs. Late-round scheduling, surface conditions at Flushing Meadows, and any fresh injury reports remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for reaching the round of 16.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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