James Harden’s strong preference to remain with the Cleveland Cavaliers after his February 2026 trade-deadline acquisition drives the market’s 98.5% implied probability for Cleveland. The 11-time All-Star declined his $42.3 million player option in late June to pursue a longer-term deal, publicly signaling his intent to re-sign and helping the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Negotiations paused to create salary-cap flexibility for roster upgrades, culminating in an August agreement on a three-year, $97 million contract with a player option and trade kicker. Official injury reports, team announcements, and beat reporting confirm no competing offers or late scratches have emerged. The only realistic shifts would involve an unforeseen contract collapse due to apron restrictions or an immediate post-signing trade, both viewed as low-probability outcomes by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers 98.4%
Toronto Raptors <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,308,210 Vol.
$1,308,210 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 98.4%
Toronto Raptors <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,308,210 Vol.
$1,308,210 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...James Harden’s strong preference to remain with the Cleveland Cavaliers after his February 2026 trade-deadline acquisition drives the market’s 98.5% implied probability for Cleveland. The 11-time All-Star declined his $42.3 million player option in late June to pursue a longer-term deal, publicly signaling his intent to re-sign and helping the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Negotiations paused to create salary-cap flexibility for roster upgrades, culminating in an August agreement on a three-year, $97 million contract with a player option and trade kicker. Official injury reports, team announcements, and beat reporting confirm no competing offers or late scratches have emerged. The only realistic shifts would involve an unforeseen contract collapse due to apron restrictions or an immediate post-signing trade, both viewed as low-probability outcomes by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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