Kyle Schwarber holds a narrow lead in the MLB home run race with 40-plus long balls through early September, driving his 58.5% implied probability as traders price in his sustained power output, favorable Phillies lineup spot, and remaining schedule. Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero sit within a handful of homers at 37 each, supporting their secondary positioning amid a crowded chase where recent form and health will dictate shifts. Late-season factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and injury reports for power hitters like Ben Rice or Munetaka Murakami further shape consensus around the frontrunner's edge while leaving realistic room for surges from the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKyle Schwarber 59%
Yordan Alvarez 9.3%
Matt Olson 7.5%
Junior Caminero 2.5%
$3,178,749 Vol.
$3,178,749 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
59%
Yordan Alvarez
9%
Matt Olson
8%
Junior Caminero
3%
Munetaka Murakami
1%
Ben Rice
1%
James Wood
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
<1%
Mike Trout
<1%
Brandon Lowe
<1%
CJ Abrams
<1%
Juan Soto
<1%
Aaron Judge
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
<1%
Nick Kurtz
<1%
George Springer
<1%
Shea Langeliers
<1%
Cal Raleigh
<1%
Pete Alonso
<1%
Rafael Devers
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
<1%
Manny Machado
<1%
Jordan Walker
<1%
Sal Stewart
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
<1%
Kyle Schwarber 59%
Yordan Alvarez 9.3%
Matt Olson 7.5%
Junior Caminero 2.5%
$3,178,749 Vol.
$3,178,749 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
$39,988 Vol.
59%
Yordan Alvarez
$14,428 Vol.
9%
Matt Olson
$4,710 Vol.
8%
Junior Caminero
$5,182 Vol.
3%
Munetaka Murakami
$9,471 Vol.
1%
Ben Rice
$3,492 Vol.
1%
James Wood
$9,454 Vol.
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
$2,543 Vol.
<1%
Mike Trout
$1,749,308 Vol.
<1%
Brandon Lowe
$470,619 Vol.
<1%
CJ Abrams
$205,214 Vol.
<1%
Juan Soto
$649,298 Vol.
<1%
Aaron Judge
$4,680 Vol.
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
$922 Vol.
<1%
Nick Kurtz
$1,516 Vol.
<1%
George Springer
$535 Vol.
<1%
Shea Langeliers
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
Cal Raleigh
$772 Vol.
<1%
Pete Alonso
$476 Vol.
<1%
Rafael Devers
$659 Vol.
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
$664 Vol.
<1%
Manny Machado
$547 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Walker
$734 Vol.
<1%
Sal Stewart
$827 Vol.
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
$1,370 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds a narrow lead in the MLB home run race with 40-plus long balls through early September, driving his 58.5% implied probability as traders price in his sustained power output, favorable Phillies lineup spot, and remaining schedule. Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero sit within a handful of homers at 37 each, supporting their secondary positioning amid a crowded chase where recent form and health will dictate shifts. Late-season factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and injury reports for power hitters like Ben Rice or Munetaka Murakami further shape consensus around the frontrunner's edge while leaving realistic room for surges from the pack.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Volume
$3,178,749End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds a narrow lead in the MLB home run race with 40-plus long balls through early September, driving his 58.5% implied probability as traders price in his sustained power output, favorable Phillies lineup spot, and remaining schedule. Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero sit within a handful of homers at 37 each, supporting their secondary positioning amid a crowded chase where recent form and health will dictate shifts. Late-season factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and injury reports for power hitters like Ben Rice or Munetaka Murakami further shape consensus around the frontrunner's edge while leaving realistic room for surges from the pack.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,178,749End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kyle Schwarber holds a narrow lead in the MLB home run race with 40-plus long balls through early September, driving his 58.5% implied probability as traders price in his sustained power output, favorable Phillies lineup spot, and remaining schedule. Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero sit within a handful of homers at 37 each, supporting their secondary positioning amid a crowded chase where recent form and health will dictate shifts. Late-season factors such as rest days, pitching matchups, and injury reports for power hitters like Ben Rice or Munetaka Murakami further shape consensus around the frontrunner's edge while leaving realistic room for surges from the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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