**High implied probability for no 4-homer game in the 2026 MLB regular season stems primarily from the feat's extreme historical rarity combined with its continued absence deep into the campaign.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than 150 years of major-league play, with 2025 marking an outlier by producing three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Kyle Schwarber). No player has replicated the accomplishment through early September 2026 despite elevated power numbers from sluggers such as Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber. Deeper bullpens, elite starting rotations, varying park factors, and matchup-specific pitching have limited even three-homer outings. With roughly one month remaining and the historical frequency hovering near once every 16,000 games, trader consensus reflects the low odds of the required combination of plate appearances, barrel rates, and favorable conditions materializing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High implied probability for no 4-homer game in the 2026 MLB regular season stems primarily from the feat's extreme historical rarity combined with its continued absence deep into the campaign.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than 150 years of major-league play, with 2025 marking an outlier by producing three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Kyle Schwarber). No player has replicated the accomplishment through early September 2026 despite elevated power numbers from sluggers such as Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber.
Deeper bullpens, elite starting rotations, varying park factors, and matchup-specific pitching have limited even three-homer outings. With roughly one month remaining and the historical frequency hovering near once every 16,000 games, trader consensus reflects the low odds of the required combination of plate appearances, barrel rates, and favorable conditions materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$7,261End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High implied probability for no 4-homer game in the 2026 MLB regular season stems primarily from the feat's extreme historical rarity combined with its continued absence deep into the campaign.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than 150 years of major-league play, with 2025 marking an outlier by producing three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Kyle Schwarber). No player has replicated the accomplishment through early September 2026 despite elevated power numbers from sluggers such as Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber.
Deeper bullpens, elite starting rotations, varying park factors, and matchup-specific pitching have limited even three-homer outings. With roughly one month remaining and the historical frequency hovering near once every 16,000 games, trader consensus reflects the low odds of the required combination of plate appearances, barrel rates, and favorable conditions materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,261End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**High implied probability for no 4-homer game in the 2026 MLB regular season stems primarily from the feat's extreme historical rarity combined with its continued absence deep into the campaign.** Only 21 such performances have occurred across more than 150 years of major-league play, with 2025 marking an outlier by producing three (Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Kyle Schwarber). No player has replicated the accomplishment through early September 2026 despite elevated power numbers from sluggers such as Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber. Deeper bullpens, elite starting rotations, varying park factors, and matchup-specific pitching have limited even three-homer outings. With roughly one month remaining and the historical frequency hovering near once every 16,000 games, trader consensus reflects the low odds of the required combination of plate appearances, barrel rates, and favorable conditions materializing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions