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icon for MLB: 2026 WAR Leader
Sports·Baseball

MLB: 2026 WAR Leader

icon for MLB: 2026 WAR Leader
Sports·Baseball

MLB: 2026 WAR Leader

Yordan Alvarez 61.9%

Dylan Cease 48.1%

Dillon Dingler 48.0%

Chris Sale 47%

Polymarket
NEW

Yordan Alvarez 61.9%

Dylan Cease 48.1%

Dillon Dingler 48.0%

Chris Sale 47%

Polymarket
NEW

Yordan Alvarez

$174 Vol.

62%

Dylan Cease

$86 Vol.

48%

Dillon Dingler

$86 Vol.

48%

Chris Sale

$75 Vol.

47%

Cam Schlittler

$86 Vol.

46%

Cristopher Sánchez

$19 Vol.

40%

Jacob Misiorowski

$86 Vol.

3%

Shohei Ohtani

$159 Vol.

3%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$78 Vol.

<1%

Pete Crow-Armstrong

$269 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR). In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Crow-Armstrong holds the narrowest edge in the 2026 WAR race at 50.5% implied probability, fueled by his MLB-leading 8.6 rWAR through early September. His .280/.376/.570 slash line, 39 home runs, 33 steals, and elite center-field defense for the Cubs have created separation from the field. Cristopher Sánchez, Dylan Cease, Cam Schlittler, and Chris Sale trail but remain within striking distance via volume innings and strong peripherals, while Yordan Alvarez and others keep the group competitive. The tight clustering around 45–50% for top names reflects the remaining schedule, late-season health variables, and the potential for any contender to surge or fade in the final weeks.

This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR).

In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR). In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,118
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR). In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Crow-Armstrong holds the narrowest edge in the 2026 WAR race at 50.5% implied probability, fueled by his MLB-leading 8.6 rWAR through early September. His .280/.376/.570 slash line, 39 home runs, 33 steals, and elite center-field defense for the Cubs have created separation from the field. Cristopher Sánchez, Dylan Cease, Cam Schlittler, and Chris Sale trail but remain within striking distance via volume innings and strong peripherals, while Yordan Alvarez and others keep the group competitive. The tight clustering around 45–50% for top names reflects the remaining schedule, late-season health variables, and the potential for any contender to surge or fade in the final weeks.

This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR).

In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR). In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,118
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 WAR Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 62%, followed by "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: 2026 WAR Leader" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 WAR Leader," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 WAR Leader" is "Yordan Alvarez" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 WAR Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.