Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to approximately 2.91% amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising its policy rate from the current 1.0% level to address above-target inflation and a weak yen. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, combined with unfunded consumption tax cuts and expanded defense and growth spending under Prime Minister Takaichi, have amplified concerns about debt sustainability and term premiums. These factors have driven the benchmark yield to a 30-year high near 3.005% in early September, with market-implied odds heavily favoring levels at or above 3.0% by year-end as monetary normalization accelerates and global rate pressures persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJapan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
3.0%+ 64.0%
2.8-3.0% 27.2%
2.6-2.8% 1.9%
2.4-2.6% <1%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
<1%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
1%
2.6-2.8%
2%
2.8-3.0%
27%
3.0%+
64%
3.0%+ 64.0%
2.8-3.0% 27.2%
2.6-2.8% 1.9%
2.4-2.6% <1%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,100 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
2.2-2.4%
$992 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,291 Vol.
1%
2.6-2.8%
$2,286 Vol.
2%
2.8-3.0%
$8,370 Vol.
27%
3.0%+
$8,967 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to approximately 2.91% amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising its policy rate from the current 1.0% level to address above-target inflation and a weak yen. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, combined with unfunded consumption tax cuts and expanded defense and growth spending under Prime Minister Takaichi, have amplified concerns about debt sustainability and term premiums. These factors have driven the benchmark yield to a 30-year high near 3.005% in early September, with market-implied odds heavily favoring levels at or above 3.0% by year-end as monetary normalization accelerates and global rate pressures persist.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$25,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to approximately 2.91% amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising its policy rate from the current 1.0% level to address above-target inflation and a weak yen. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, combined with unfunded consumption tax cuts and expanded defense and growth spending under Prime Minister Takaichi, have amplified concerns about debt sustainability and term premiums. These factors have driven the benchmark yield to a 30-year high near 3.005% in early September, with market-implied odds heavily favoring levels at or above 3.0% by year-end as monetary normalization accelerates and global rate pressures persist.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$25,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to approximately 2.91% amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising its policy rate from the current 1.0% level to address above-target inflation and a weak yen. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion, combined with unfunded consumption tax cuts and expanded defense and growth spending under Prime Minister Takaichi, have amplified concerns about debt sustainability and term premiums. These factors have driven the benchmark yield to a 30-year high near 3.005% in early September, with market-implied odds heavily favoring levels at or above 3.0% by year-end as monetary normalization accelerates and global rate pressures persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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