Persistent heat across much of the U.S. in August 2026, including extended heat domes from Texas to California and the Southeast, drove numerous daily and some all-time station records, yet the scale appears more modest than July’s 184-plus all-time highs. Regional patterns such as high pressure over the South and continued warmth in the West produced triple-digit readings and ties at places like Miami and Denver, while nationwide averages ranked among the warmer recent Augusts. Traders see roughly even odds between the 0-20 and 101-150 buckets because final tallies of true all-time station maxima remain uncertain pending complete NOAA compilation, and many breaks may have been limited to shorter-record sites or daily marks rather than longstanding extremes. Full data releases or cooler late-month shifts could quickly widen the gap between low and moderate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
21-60 29%
61-100 14%
151+ 3.6%
0-20 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
49%
21-60
22%
61-100
14%
101-150
37%
151+
4%
21-60 29%
61-100 14%
151+ 3.6%
0-20 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$275 Vol.
49%
21-60
$193 Vol.
22%
61-100
$86 Vol.
14%
101-150
$59 Vol.
37%
151+
$100 Vol.
4%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent heat across much of the U.S. in August 2026, including extended heat domes from Texas to California and the Southeast, drove numerous daily and some all-time station records, yet the scale appears more modest than July’s 184-plus all-time highs. Regional patterns such as high pressure over the South and continued warmth in the West produced triple-digit readings and ties at places like Miami and Denver, while nationwide averages ranked among the warmer recent Augusts. Traders see roughly even odds between the 0-20 and 101-150 buckets because final tallies of true all-time station maxima remain uncertain pending complete NOAA compilation, and many breaks may have been limited to shorter-record sites or daily marks rather than longstanding extremes. Full data releases or cooler late-month shifts could quickly widen the gap between low and moderate outcomes.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$714End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent heat across much of the U.S. in August 2026, including extended heat domes from Texas to California and the Southeast, drove numerous daily and some all-time station records, yet the scale appears more modest than July’s 184-plus all-time highs. Regional patterns such as high pressure over the South and continued warmth in the West produced triple-digit readings and ties at places like Miami and Denver, while nationwide averages ranked among the warmer recent Augusts. Traders see roughly even odds between the 0-20 and 101-150 buckets because final tallies of true all-time station maxima remain uncertain pending complete NOAA compilation, and many breaks may have been limited to shorter-record sites or daily marks rather than longstanding extremes. Full data releases or cooler late-month shifts could quickly widen the gap between low and moderate outcomes.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$714End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heat across much of the U.S. in August 2026, including extended heat domes from Texas to California and the Southeast, drove numerous daily and some all-time station records, yet the scale appears more modest than July’s 184-plus all-time highs. Regional patterns such as high pressure over the South and continued warmth in the West produced triple-digit readings and ties at places like Miami and Denver, while nationwide averages ranked among the warmer recent Augusts. Traders see roughly even odds between the 0-20 and 101-150 buckets because final tallies of true all-time station maxima remain uncertain pending complete NOAA compilation, and many breaks may have been limited to shorter-record sites or daily marks rather than longstanding extremes. Full data releases or cooler late-month shifts could quickly widen the gap between low and moderate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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