**Diddy (Sean Combs) remains incarcerated at FCI Fort Dix serving a 50-month federal sentence imposed in October 2025 for two Mann Act convictions tied to transporting individuals for prostitution, following his acquittal on more serious racketeering and sex-trafficking charges.** His Bureau of Prisons projected release date has fluctuated with good-conduct credits and participation in a residential drug-abuse program but consistently points to early 2028 (most recently around February 5, 2028, after prior adjustments and minor setbacks from reported incidents). As of September 2026, with only months left in the year, no credible path exists for release before year-end. The pending Second Circuit appeal—raising a novel legal issue about sentencing considerations—has not produced a ruling that would accelerate freedom, and external factors like reported pardon requests have not altered the timeline. Traders assign an 80.2% implied probability to “No” because the sentence length, ongoing litigation, and lack of intervening events (such as a successful bail motion or executive action) create a clear barrier to 2026 release, consistent with historical patterns for similar federal convictions. Key upcoming catalysts include any appeal decision or further BOP adjustments, though neither is expected to shift the outcome this year.