**The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster and upper stage at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole operational pad, destroying the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and related ground equipment while leaving the propellant farm intact.** Blue Origin’s CEO has repeatedly pledged a return-to-flight before year-end via a hybrid horizontal/vertical operations concept that bypasses full reconstruction and leverages existing infrastructure. However, as of early September 2026, reconstruction remains underway with no completed launches since the April NG-3 mission, and independent assessments note that pad repairs or alternative-site certification could realistically extend beyond 2026. Traders price the 84% “No” probability on the combination of extensive physical damage, the compressed remaining timeline, absence of backup pads, and historical heavy-lift vehicle recovery paces, while acknowledging that accelerated testing at Stennis and rapid pad work represent the main swing factors that could still enable a late-year flight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster and upper stage at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole operational pad, destroying the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and related ground equipment while leaving the propellant farm intact.**
Blue Origin’s CEO has repeatedly pledged a return-to-flight before year-end via a hybrid horizontal/vertical operations concept that bypasses full reconstruction and leverages existing infrastructure. However, as of early September 2026, reconstruction remains underway with no completed launches since the April NG-3 mission, and independent assessments note that pad repairs or alternative-site certification could realistically extend beyond 2026. Traders price the 84% “No” probability on the combination of extensive physical damage, the compressed remaining timeline, absence of backup pads, and historical heavy-lift vehicle recovery paces, while acknowledging that accelerated testing at Stennis and rapid pad work represent the main swing factors that could still enable a late-year flight.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,447End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster and upper stage at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole operational pad, destroying the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and related ground equipment while leaving the propellant farm intact.**
Blue Origin’s CEO has repeatedly pledged a return-to-flight before year-end via a hybrid horizontal/vertical operations concept that bypasses full reconstruction and leverages existing infrastructure. However, as of early September 2026, reconstruction remains underway with no completed launches since the April NG-3 mission, and independent assessments note that pad repairs or alternative-site certification could realistically extend beyond 2026. Traders price the 84% “No” probability on the combination of extensive physical damage, the compressed remaining timeline, absence of backup pads, and historical heavy-lift vehicle recovery paces, while acknowledging that accelerated testing at Stennis and rapid pad work represent the main swing factors that could still enable a late-year flight.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$1,447End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster and upper stage at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole operational pad, destroying the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and related ground equipment while leaving the propellant farm intact.** Blue Origin’s CEO has repeatedly pledged a return-to-flight before year-end via a hybrid horizontal/vertical operations concept that bypasses full reconstruction and leverages existing infrastructure. However, as of early September 2026, reconstruction remains underway with no completed launches since the April NG-3 mission, and independent assessments note that pad repairs or alternative-site certification could realistically extend beyond 2026. Traders price the 84% “No” probability on the combination of extensive physical damage, the compressed remaining timeline, absence of backup pads, and historical heavy-lift vehicle recovery paces, while acknowledging that accelerated testing at Stennis and rapid pad work represent the main swing factors that could still enable a late-year flight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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