The recent July 2026 excommunication of the Society of St. Pius X, its bishops, priests, and formally adhering members—triggered by unauthorized bishop consecrations in defiance of Pope Leo XIV—represents the primary recent development shaping trader views. Such public sanctions remain exceptional under canon law and typically arise only from major schismatic acts, which have not recurred since. With the SSPX crisis largely addressed through this broad decree and no other high-profile doctrinal conflicts escalating in the months that followed, the implied probability heavily favors no further public excommunications before year-end, consistent with the Church’s historically cautious and infrequent use of the penalty.