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icon for Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

icon for Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

7% chance
Polymarket

$15,530 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$15,530 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.George R.R. Martin’s extended silence on *The Winds of Winter* and documented personal challenges have solidified trader consensus around a low likelihood of a 2026 announcement. The author’s August blog post detailed grief, depression, and the strains of aging, while confirming he remains focused on side projects including a fourth Dunk & Egg novella and support for *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms*. Publisher statements have repeatedly debunked 2026 release rumors, and Martin has offered no measurable progress updates on the long-delayed *A Song of Ice and Fire* entry since earlier vague commitments. Precedent from years of stalled timelines and competing commitments reinforces the market’s strong “No” positioning, though an unexpected manuscript delivery or surprise convention reveal before December 31 could still shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$15,530
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.George R.R. Martin’s extended silence on *The Winds of Winter* and documented personal challenges have solidified trader consensus around a low likelihood of a 2026 announcement. The author’s August blog post detailed grief, depression, and the strains of aging, while confirming he remains focused on side projects including a fourth Dunk & Egg novella and support for *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms*. Publisher statements have repeatedly debunked 2026 release rumors, and Martin has offered no measurable progress updates on the long-delayed *A Song of Ice and Fire* entry since earlier vague commitments. Precedent from years of stalled timelines and competing commitments reinforces the market’s strong “No” positioning, though an unexpected manuscript delivery or surprise convention reveal before December 31 could still shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$15,530
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?" has generated $15.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.