Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Justin Gaethje 92.5%

Arman Tsarukyan 5.1%

Ilia Topuria 1.5%

Charles Oliveira <1%

$682,323 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Ilia Topuria

$19,541 Vol.

Arman Tsarukyan

$11,628 Vol.

Charles Oliveira

$9,571 Vol.

Max Holloway

$16,716 Vol.

<1%

Justin Gaethje

$31,230 Vol.

92%

Paddy Pimblett

$526,750 Vol.

<1%

Dan Hooker

$2,174 Vol.

<1%

Mateusz Gamrot

$1,993 Vol.

<1%

Benoît Saint Denis

$54,140 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Fiziev

$2,086 Vol.

<1%

Renato Moicano

$2,429 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Ruffy

$4,065 Vol.

<1%

Justin Gaethje 92.5%

Arman Tsarukyan 5.1%

Ilia Topuria 1.5%

Charles Oliveira <1%

$682,323 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Ilia Topuria

$19,541 Vol.

Arman Tsarukyan

$11,628 Vol.

Charles Oliveira

$9,571 Vol.

Max Holloway

$16,716 Vol.

<1%

Justin Gaethje

$31,230 Vol.

92%

Paddy Pimblett

$526,750 Vol.

<1%

Dan Hooker

$2,174 Vol.

<1%

Mateusz Gamrot

$1,993 Vol.

<1%

Benoît Saint Denis

$54,140 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Fiziev

$2,086 Vol.

<1%

Renato Moicano

$2,429 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Ruffy

$4,065 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Volume

$682,323

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Market Opened

Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Volume

$682,323

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Market Opened

Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

92%

Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

52%

Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

87%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Justin Gaethje" at 92%, followed by "Arman Tsarukyan" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $682.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Justin Gaethje" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Arman Tsarukyan" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $682.3K traded on “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 92¢ for "Justin Gaethje" in the "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 92% chance that "Justin Gaethje" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 92¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 8¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" market has a growing discussion of 4 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (4)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?"?

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What does a price of 92¢ for "Justin Gaethje" mean?

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What is Polymarket?