Lacy and Marlon shifted into the high-variance Hardcore Minecraft leg of their September 2026 single-stream gauntlet after clearing Warzone and Fortnite in roughly 25 hours. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a creeper elimination, reflecting that mob’s elevated spawn frequency in standard survival play and the pair’s documented history of creeper-related deaths across prior long-form Minecraft runs. Skeleton trails as a secondary option given ranged threats in open terrain. Marathon-length fatigue, limited recent Hardcore practice, and the no-restart format heighten overall death variance while preserving the core mob-encounter dynamics that shape current pricing. Resolution hinges on official broadcast death messages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$38,852 Vol.

Creeper (again)
50%

Zombie
47%

Blaze
15%

Skeleton (again)
55%

Spider
17%

Enderman
22%

Wither Skeleton
20%

Zombified Piglin
12%

Ender Dragon
25%

Pillager
5%

Vex
25%
$38,852 Vol.

Creeper (again)
50%

Zombie
47%

Blaze
15%

Skeleton (again)
55%

Spider
17%

Enderman
22%

Wither Skeleton
20%

Zombified Piglin
12%

Ender Dragon
25%

Pillager
5%

Vex
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for either Lacy or Marlon following an in-game Minecraft death between market creation and the end of the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes."
An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message.
A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.
Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.
An in-game death occurring on either Lacy's or Marlon's stream will count. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.
If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve to "No." If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcasts of Lacy and Marlon.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 11:04 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.twitch.tv/lacyResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for either Lacy or Marlon following an in-game Minecraft death between market creation and the end of the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes."
An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message.
A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.
Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.
An in-game death occurring on either Lacy's or Marlon's stream will count. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.
If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve to "No." If a qualifying death has not occurred since market creation and the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcasts of Lacy and Marlon.
Resolution Source
https://www.twitch.tv/lacyResolver
0x65070BE91...Lacy and Marlon shifted into the high-variance Hardcore Minecraft leg of their September 2026 single-stream gauntlet after clearing Warzone and Fortnite in roughly 25 hours. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a creeper elimination, reflecting that mob’s elevated spawn frequency in standard survival play and the pair’s documented history of creeper-related deaths across prior long-form Minecraft runs. Skeleton trails as a secondary option given ranged threats in open terrain. Marathon-length fatigue, limited recent Hardcore practice, and the no-restart format heighten overall death variance while preserving the core mob-encounter dynamics that shape current pricing. Resolution hinges on official broadcast death messages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions