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Finance·SPX

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

icon for What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
Finance·SPX

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$339,471 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$339,471 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $10,000

$103 Vol.

3%

↑ $9,300

$9,538 Vol.

3%

↑ $9,000

$78 Vol.

3%

↑ $8,600

$30,614 Vol.

11%

↑ $8,200

$23,745 Vol.

32%

↑ $8,000

$559 Vol.

60%

↓ $7,400

$0 Vol.

68%

↓ $7,200

$0 Vol.

73%

↓ $7,000

$343 Vol.

38%

↓ $6,200

$52,833 Vol.

17%

↓ $6,000

$2,957 Vol.

16%

↓ $5,800

$41,770 Vol.

9%

↓ $5,200

$56,898 Vol.

7%

↓ $4,500

$59,984 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Recent corporate earnings have delivered robust growth, with S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2026 revised higher to around $320–$340 amid broad AI-related capex, supporting the index near 7,720 as of early September 2026. Trader focus now shifts to macro data, including the August CPI release on September 11 and the FOMC decision on September 16, which could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields. Further catalysts through December encompass additional employment reports, PCE inflation prints, and the final FOMC meeting, with analyst year-end targets clustering between 7,800 and 8,000. Elevated valuations and potential volatility from geopolitical or inflation surprises remain key variables priced into forward levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$339,471
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Recent corporate earnings have delivered robust growth, with S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2026 revised higher to around $320–$340 amid broad AI-related capex, supporting the index near 7,720 as of early September 2026. Trader focus now shifts to macro data, including the August CPI release on September 11 and the FOMC decision on September 16, which could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields. Further catalysts through December encompass additional employment reports, PCE inflation prints, and the final FOMC meeting, with analyst year-end targets clustering between 7,800 and 8,000. Elevated valuations and potential volatility from geopolitical or inflation surprises remain key variables priced into forward levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$339,471
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $7,800" at 100%, followed by "↑ $7,600" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?" has generated $339.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?" is "↑ $7,800" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $7,600" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.