**Strong August employment data, released September 4, anchors near-term expectations for the September unemployment rate.** Nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—while the jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, with upward revisions to prior months reinforcing labor-market resilience amid slower labor-force growth. This recent firmness supports the market-implied concentration around 4.0–4.2%, where combined probabilities exceed 80%, reflecting trader consensus that the rate will likely remain near its current level rather than accelerate higher. Broader indicators, including stable participation and contained claims, suggest limited downside risk in the near term, though volatility in monthly prints and any September-specific softening could still shift outcomes within the narrow band. The October 2 release will resolve the contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.1% 37%
4.2% 27%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
4%
3.9%
7%
4.0%
19%
4.1%
37%
4.2%
27%
4.3%
12%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
5%
≥4.6%
3%
4.1% 37%
4.2% 27%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
$663 Vol.
4%
3.9%
$114 Vol.
7%
4.0%
$71 Vol.
19%
4.1%
$716 Vol.
37%
4.2%
$96 Vol.
27%
4.3%
$71 Vol.
12%
4.4%
$185 Vol.
5%
4.5%
$514 Vol.
5%
≥4.6%
$514 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Strong August employment data, released September 4, anchors near-term expectations for the September unemployment rate.** Nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—while the jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, with upward revisions to prior months reinforcing labor-market resilience amid slower labor-force growth. This recent firmness supports the market-implied concentration around 4.0–4.2%, where combined probabilities exceed 80%, reflecting trader consensus that the rate will likely remain near its current level rather than accelerate higher. Broader indicators, including stable participation and contained claims, suggest limited downside risk in the near term, though volatility in monthly prints and any September-specific softening could still shift outcomes within the narrow band. The October 2 release will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,945End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Strong August employment data, released September 4, anchors near-term expectations for the September unemployment rate.** Nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—while the jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, with upward revisions to prior months reinforcing labor-market resilience amid slower labor-force growth. This recent firmness supports the market-implied concentration around 4.0–4.2%, where combined probabilities exceed 80%, reflecting trader consensus that the rate will likely remain near its current level rather than accelerate higher. Broader indicators, including stable participation and contained claims, suggest limited downside risk in the near term, though volatility in monthly prints and any September-specific softening could still shift outcomes within the narrow band. The October 2 release will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,945End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong August employment data, released September 4, anchors near-term expectations for the September unemployment rate.** Nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above consensus—while the jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, with upward revisions to prior months reinforcing labor-market resilience amid slower labor-force growth. This recent firmness supports the market-implied concentration around 4.0–4.2%, where combined probabilities exceed 80%, reflecting trader consensus that the rate will likely remain near its current level rather than accelerate higher. Broader indicators, including stable participation and contained claims, suggest limited downside risk in the near term, though volatility in monthly prints and any September-specific softening could still shift outcomes within the narrow band. The October 2 release will resolve the contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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