A deep 2026 NHL Draft class has produced a tightly bunched field for the 2026-27 Calder Trophy, with trader consensus assigning Gavin McKenna the highest implied probability at 26.5% while spreading the balance across dozens of first-round prospects. McKenna, selected first overall by the Maple Leafs after a standout NCAA season at Penn State, projects for immediate top-six minutes and power-play exposure alongside established stars. Ivar Stenberg follows at 10% on the strength of his SHL experience and two-way polish with the Sharks, though many peers like Adam Novotný and Viggo Björck carry similar upside in favorable landing spots. Preseason roster battles, projected ice time, and the inherent variability of rookie adaptation across a talented group continue to compress probabilities, reflecting broad uncertainty rather than any single standout favorite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGavin McKenna 27%
Ivar Stenberg 10%
Adam Novotný 2.4%
Viggo Björck 1.4%
$33,270 Vol.
$33,270 Vol.
Gavin McKenna
27%
Ivar Stenberg
10%
Adam Novotný
2%
Viggo Björck
1%
Carson Carels
1%
Keaton Verhoeff
1%
Chase Reid
1%
Caleb Malhotra
<1%
JP Hurlbert
<1%
Alberts Smits
<1%
Nikita Klepov
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
<1%
William Hakansson
<1%
Ilya Morozov
<1%
Mathis Preston
<1%
Tommy Bleyl
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
<1%
Ethan Belchetz
<1%
Markus Ruck
<1%
Alexander Command
<1%
Ryan Lin
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
<1%
Oscar Hemming
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
<1%
Liam Ruck
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
<1%
Elton Hermansson
<1%
Gavin McKenna 27%
Ivar Stenberg 10%
Adam Novotný 2.4%
Viggo Björck 1.4%
$33,270 Vol.
$33,270 Vol.
Gavin McKenna
27%
Ivar Stenberg
10%
Adam Novotný
2%
Viggo Björck
1%
Carson Carels
1%
Keaton Verhoeff
1%
Chase Reid
1%
Caleb Malhotra
<1%
JP Hurlbert
<1%
Alberts Smits
<1%
Nikita Klepov
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
<1%
William Hakansson
<1%
Ilya Morozov
<1%
Mathis Preston
<1%
Tommy Bleyl
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
<1%
Ethan Belchetz
<1%
Markus Ruck
<1%
Alexander Command
<1%
Ryan Lin
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
<1%
Oscar Hemming
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
<1%
Liam Ruck
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
<1%
Elton Hermansson
<1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A deep 2026 NHL Draft class has produced a tightly bunched field for the 2026-27 Calder Trophy, with trader consensus assigning Gavin McKenna the highest implied probability at 26.5% while spreading the balance across dozens of first-round prospects. McKenna, selected first overall by the Maple Leafs after a standout NCAA season at Penn State, projects for immediate top-six minutes and power-play exposure alongside established stars. Ivar Stenberg follows at 10% on the strength of his SHL experience and two-way polish with the Sharks, though many peers like Adam Novotný and Viggo Björck carry similar upside in favorable landing spots. Preseason roster battles, projected ice time, and the inherent variability of rookie adaptation across a talented group continue to compress probabilities, reflecting broad uncertainty rather than any single standout favorite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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