**The relegation hexagonal format and a tightly bunched lower table create high uncertainty around which side finishes 14th overall as the last team to avoid direct relegation in the 2026 LigaPro Serie A.** With the first stage nearing its end (around matchday 29 of ~30, concluding mid-September), teams from roughly 11th to 16th—Emelec, Deportivo Cuenca, Orense, Técnico Universitario, Delfín, and Manta—enter a six-team playoff group carrying forward their points. The two lowest finishers drop to Serie B. Current gaps are narrow (Emelec/Cuenca near 35-36 points, Orense at 30, Técnico at 29, Delfín at 27, Manta at 20), and results from the final first-stage fixtures plus the hexagonal (starting September 20) can easily reorder the group. Mid-table sides like Libertad, Mushuc Runa, Guayaquil City, and Leones sit just above the cutoff and remain vulnerable to slips that could pull them into the survival mix. Recent form, goal difference, head-to-head results, and squad availability in the high-stakes playoff matches will be decisive, leaving trader consensus dispersed across a wide field of plausible 14th-place outcomes.