Recent hawkish communications from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Hajime Takata, combined with July CPI rising to 1.9% year-over-year and core measures approaching 2%, have elevated expectations for a potential 25 basis point policy rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting from the current 1% level. Persistent upside risks from yen weakness, service price pressures, and energy costs have reinforced the data-dependent tightening path, supporting the 78% market-implied probability of no change at the late-October meeting. Traders assign only a 20.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase in October, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment is likely front-loaded into September amid the central bank's focus on preventing inflation overshoots while monitoring cumulative economic effects. The September outcome and August inflation release remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
<1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish communications from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Hajime Takata, combined with July CPI rising to 1.9% year-over-year and core measures approaching 2%, have elevated expectations for a potential 25 basis point policy rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting from the current 1% level. Persistent upside risks from yen weakness, service price pressures, and energy costs have reinforced the data-dependent tightening path, supporting the 78% market-implied probability of no change at the late-October meeting. Traders assign only a 20.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase in October, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment is likely front-loaded into September amid the central bank's focus on preventing inflation overshoots while monitoring cumulative economic effects. The September outcome and August inflation release remain key near-term catalysts.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$68,546End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish communications from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Hajime Takata, combined with July CPI rising to 1.9% year-over-year and core measures approaching 2%, have elevated expectations for a potential 25 basis point policy rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting from the current 1% level. Persistent upside risks from yen weakness, service price pressures, and energy costs have reinforced the data-dependent tightening path, supporting the 78% market-implied probability of no change at the late-October meeting. Traders assign only a 20.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase in October, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment is likely front-loaded into September amid the central bank's focus on preventing inflation overshoots while monitoring cumulative economic effects. The September outcome and August inflation release remain key near-term catalysts.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$68,546End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish communications from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Hajime Takata, combined with July CPI rising to 1.9% year-over-year and core measures approaching 2%, have elevated expectations for a potential 25 basis point policy rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting from the current 1% level. Persistent upside risks from yen weakness, service price pressures, and energy costs have reinforced the data-dependent tightening path, supporting the 78% market-implied probability of no change at the late-October meeting. Traders assign only a 20.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase in October, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment is likely front-loaded into September amid the central bank's focus on preventing inflation overshoots while monitoring cumulative economic effects. The September outcome and August inflation release remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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